Smoke Signals: Predicting the health burden of wildfires across the UK and Europe (LAKE_UEA_ARIES26)
Key Details
- Application deadline
- 7 January 2026 (midnight UK time)
- Location
- UEA
- Funding type
- Competition funded project (Students worldwide)
- Start date
- 1 October 2026
- Mode of study
- Full or part time
- Programme type
- PhD
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Welcome to Norwich
According to the Sunday Times, this city is one of the best places to live in the UK.
Project description
Primary supervisor - Prof Iain Lake
Scientific Background
The 2025 wildfire season had destructive effects across Europe. Over 10,000 km2 burnt, an area equivalent in size to Cyprus. Wildfires produce hazardous smoke that can travel hundreds of km influencing air quality over large areas. Of particular concern is fine particulate matter (PM2.5), which penetrates deep into the lungs and enters the bloodstream, leading to asthma, lung disease, heart conditions, strokes, and pregnancy/birth complications. Some countries have studied these health impacts extensively, but this is not the case in Europe (1,2). European healthcare systems remain largely unaware and underprepared for the growing threat of wildfire smoke exposure. This project will provide vital new insights into the health effects of wildfire smoke in Europe and by generating evidence-based public health guidance and developing early warning interventions (3), this project will help society adapt to the increasing threat of wildfire smoke.
Research Methodology
We will use data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to isolate the contribution of fire to air pollution (PM25) levels across Europe. Two model experiments one with fires, one without will assess the fire specific contribution to PM25 beyond background sources. Using machine learning, we will derive dose-response curves for ill health and death associated with exposures to fire-related PM25. Analysis will be stratified by factors such as age, sex and occupation. Finally, you will incorporate results into the State of Wildfires report authored by members of the research team (4).
Training
This PhD provides an exciting opportunity to work with an interdisciplinary team of experts in wildfires and health from 2 UEA schools, North Carolina State University and the ECMWF. Training will be provided in the extraction of health and climate data from official sources alongside statistical and machine learing techniques to generate smoke-health dose-response curves. Broadly you will gain sought after skills in the analysis and interpretation of large datasets using statistical and machine learning techniques. The skills you will develop are highly valued by employers.
Person Specification
An enthusiastic individual with a quantitative degree. Experience of Environmental Modelling or Public Health would be advantageous but not essential.
Entry requirements
At least UK equivalence Bachelors (Honours) 2:1. English Language requirement (Faculty of Science equivalent: IELTS 6.5 overall, 6 in each category).
Acceptable first degree: numerate, computational, or environmental subject areas.
Funding
ARIES studentships are subject to UKRI terms and conditions. Successful candidates who meet UKRI’s eligibility criteria will be awarded a fully-funded studentship, which covers fees, maintenance stipend (£20,780 p.a. for 2025/26) and a research training and support grant (RTSG). A limited number of studentships are available for international applicants, with the difference between 'home' and 'international' fees being waived by the registering university. Please note, however, that ARIES funding does not cover additional costs associated with relocation to, and living in, the UK, such as visa costs or the health surcharge.
ARIES is committed to equality, diversity, widening participation and inclusion in all areas of its operation. We encourage applications from all sections of the community regardless of gender, ethnicity, disability, age, sexual orientation and transgender status. Projects have been developed with consideration of a safe, inclusive and appropriate research and fieldwork environment. Academic qualifications are considered alongside non-academic experience, with equal weighting given to experience and potential.
Please visit www.aries-dtp.ac.uk for further information.
References
Casajus Valles, A., Marín Ferrer, M., Poljanšek, K. and Clark, I., Science for disaster risk management 2020 – Acting today, protecting tomorrow, Casajus Valles, A.(editor), Marín Ferrer, M.(editor), Poljanšek, K.(editor) and Clark, I.(editor), Publications Office of the European Union, 2021.
UKHSA (2023). Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK; State of the Evidence 2023. London, UK Health Security Agency.
Lake IR, Barker GC. Climate Change, Foodborne Pathogens and Illness in Higher-Income Countries. Current Environmental Health Reports. 2018;5(1):187-96.
Jones MW, Kelley DI, Burton CA, Di Giuseppe F, Barbosa MLF, Brambleby E, et al. State of Wildfires 2023–2024. Earth Syst Sci Data. 2024;16(8):3601-85.
Fay H. Johnston, Grant Williamson, Nicolas Borchers-Arriagada, Sarah B. Henderson and David M.J.S. Bowman (2024) Climate Change, Landscape Fires, and Human Health: A Global Perspective, 45.