Forest Carbon Project Exposure to Wildfire: Global Patterns and Evolving Risk under Climate Change, CASE project with BeZero Carbon Limited (VAUGHAN_UEA_ARIES26_CASE)
Key Details
- Application deadline
- 7 January 2026
- Location
- UEA
- Funding type
- Competition funded project (Students worldwide)
- Start date
- 1 October 2026
- Mode of study
- Full or part time
- Programme type
- PhD
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Welcome to Norwich
According to the Sunday Times, this city is one of the best places to live in the UK.
Project description
Primary supervisor - Prof Naomi Vaughan
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is used in all future emission scenarios to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and is relied upon in most national climate policies to achieve net zero by 2050. CDR is used at net zero to offset emissions from difficult-to-decarbonise sectors such as aviation, agriculture and heavy industry. Any temporary overshoot of a specific global temperature target, this century, can only be achieved through global net negative emissions, where CDR removes more CO2 from the atmosphere than all human activity is emitting. Today, CDR removes 2.2 GtCO2 each year, but in more sustainable future scenarios this rises to 8 GtCO2 a year by 2050.
Most carbon projects focus on forest expansion via afforestation and reforestation, and most national climate plans rely on more forest projects in coming decades. However, their effectiveness is constrained by several challenges, including land availability (competition with food production, biodiversity), ensuring additionality, loss to disturbance (e.g., human, windstorms, pests and disease). Forest carbon projects use buffer pools (i.e. an extra 10-20% area) as an insurance against losses. A critical, yet vastly under-studied, limitation lies in forest carbon project exposure to current and future wildfires.
Wildfire disturbance poses a significant threat to the permanence and long-term carbon sequestration potential of forest-based carbon projects. Despite this, very little is known about current or future potential of wildfires to cause disturbance in forest-based carbon projects. This knowledge gap is exacerbated by the lack of comprehensive global datasets mapping the location and boundaries of existing, planned, and potential carbon projects. This project is a critical step towards closing the knowledge gap.
Research methodology
1. Compile a comprehensive global database of ongoing and planned carbon project boundaries. This will build on the dataset of ~3,000 global projects already compiled by CASE partner, BeZero Carbon Ltd.
2. Evaluate the effects of wildfire on carbon projects since 2000 using observations from the Global Fire Atlas.
3. Evaluate the net benefit of carbon projects over their commitment periods by accounting for ecosystem recovery after fire.
4. Use projections of future fire extent to predict the future change in the exposure of carbon projects to fire at future global warming levels of 1.5 - 4.0 °C.
5. Use the results to from (3) to form prototype estimates of the buffer pool sizes required to insure against future fire risk in carbon projects, tailored to regions.
Training
As part of an interdisciplinary, cohesive and successful research team you will receive training in geospatial analysis, programming, and science communication. You will also gain sought-after skills in the analysis and interpretation of large datasets using statistical and machine learning techniques, including in industry-leading approaches and products. This PhD provides an exciting opportunity to work closely with experts in wildfires and climate change mitigation. The skills you will develop during this PhD are highly valued by policy and industry employers and across research disciplines.
Person specification
We are looking for an enthusiastic individual with a degree in a quantitative discipline. Experience of geospatial analysis (with GIS) is essential and programming with code (e.g. R, Python) would be advantageous.
Entry requirements
At least UK equivalence Bachelors (Honours) 2:1. English Language requirement (Faculty of Science equivalent: IELTS 6.5 overall, 6 in each category).
Acceptable first degree: A degree in numerate, computational, or environmental subject areas.
Numerate Subject Areas include e.g.: Mathematics, Statistics, Physics, Economics, Finance, Engineering (Mechanical, Electrical, Civil, etc.)
Funding
ARIES studentships are subject to UKRI terms and conditions. Successful candidates who meet UKRI’s eligibility criteria will be awarded a fully-funded studentship, which covers fees, maintenance stipend (£20,780 p.a. for 2025/26) and a research training and support grant (RTSG). A limited number of studentships are available for international applicants, with the difference between 'home' and 'international' fees being waived by the registering university. Please note, however, that ARIES funding does not cover additional costs associated with relocation to, and living in, the UK, such as visa costs or the health surcharge.
ARIES is committed to equality, diversity, widening participation and inclusion in all areas of its operation. We encourage applications from all sections of the community regardless of gender, ethnicity, disability, age, sexual orientation and transgender status. Projects have been developed with consideration of a safe, inclusive and appropriate research and fieldwork environment. Academic qualifications are considered alongside non-academic experience, with equal weighting given to experience and potential.
Please visit www.aries-dtp.ac.uk for further information.
References
Smith, S. M., Geden, O., Gidden, M. J., Lamb, W. F., Nemet, G. F., Minx, J. C., Buck, H., Burke, J., Cox, E., Edwards, M. R., Fuss, S., Johnstone, I., Müller-Hansen, F., Pongratz, J., Probst, B. S., Roe, S., Schenuit, F., Schulte, I., Vaughan, N. E. (eds.) (2024) The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal 2024 - 2nd Edition. https://doi/org/10.17605/OSF.IO/F85QJ
Smith, H.B., Vaughan, N.E. & Forster, J. (2022). Long-term national climate strategies bet on forests and soils to reach net-zero. Commun Earth Environ 3:305 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00636-x
Jones, M. W., Veraverbeke, S., Andela, N., Doerr, S. H., Kolden, C., Mataveli, G., ... & Abatzoglou, J. T. (2024). Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics. Science 386:eadl5889 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adl5889.
Jones, M. W., Kelley, D. I., Burton, C. A., Di Giuseppe, F., Barbosa, M. L. F., Brambleby, E., ... & Xanthopoulos, G. (2024). State of wildfires 2023–2024. Earth System Science Data 16:3601 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024.
Andela, N., Morton, D. C., Giglio, L., Paugam, R., Chen, Y., Hantson, S., ... & Randerson, J. T. (2019) The Global Fire Atlas of individual fire size, duration, speed and direction. Earth System Science Data 11: 529 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-529-2019.