Commons Sense

Commons sense

Dr. Chris Hanretty, a political scientist with a head for numbers from the School of Politics, Philosophy, Language and Communication Studies, has developed a cutting edge Election Forecast model in partnership with other leading political experts.

The model uses data from elections dating back to 1979, combined with all publicly released national and constituency polls results, historical election results, and data from the UK Census to predict the outcome of elections.

As elections draw closer the associated polls become increasingly accurate, but the combination of poll data and historical analysis that the Election Forecast model uses enables it to give a unique interpretation of the data.

During the UK General Election 2015 information was analysed and reported daily, and the model was used extensively by various media outlets, with Chris appearing regularly as an analyst on BBC Newsnight as part of their Newsnight Index feature. 


The Expert

Chris Hanretty

Reader in Politics
School of Politics, Philosophy, Language and Communication Studies
Chris' research looks at the politics of non-majoritarian institutions, and how institutions can be made more responsive to, or better insulated from, political pressure. His research focuses primarily on developments at the national level in European Union member states.