- Nico Aspinall
- Clive Bolton
- Andrew Cairns
- Colm Fitzgerald
- Clifford Friend
- Ruth Hancock
- Sarah Mathieson
- Anne-Marie Minihane
- Ben Rickayzen
- Andrew D. Smith
Nico is Chair of the IFoA’s Resource and Environment Board.
Title: We need to talk about sustainability
Nico will present the sustainability agenda, and talk about its importance, actuarial weaknesses and strengths, and the possible future developments in this important area.
Presentation - We need to talk about sustainability (PDF,2.82MB)
Clive is MD, Retirement Solutions, Aviva UK & Ireland Life. He is a member of the UK & Ireland Life Exec and Executive Chairman of Aviva UK Equity Release.
He is a Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. He is also Honorary Fellow of UEA (from February 2010), working to strengthen the links between the academic and business communities specifically in the use of mathematical and statistical research.
Title: Exploring how academia and the private sector can work well together and the pitfalls
Clive will talk on:
- Understanding the different cultures and how to accommodate
- Clarity around the multiple definitions of success
He will be using the relationship Aviva has had with the UEA since 1990 as his basis for this and the lessons learned.
Andrew Cairns is Professor of Financial Mathematics at Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, and Director of the Actuarial Research Centre supported by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. He is well known both in the UK and internationally for his research in financial risk management for pension plans and life insurers. His research interests have centred around the development of new models for long-term risks including yield curve modelling and pricing of long-term interest-rate derivatives. More recently he has been working on the modelling of longevity risk: how this can be modelled, measured and priced, and how it can be transferred to the financial markets.In 2016 he was elected as a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh,
Scotland's national academy of science and letters.
Title: The Impact of Longevity Risk Hedging on Economic Capital
We consider the different options for hedging longevity risk in the presence of basis risk and what the impact is of different hedges on economic or regulatory capital. Using a Danish case study, we consider the issues involved in calculating economic capital. How is this assessed? Do we use the same multi-population mortality model for simulations and
valuations? How do we simulate the payoffs of different hedging instruments? How do we assess the impact of these hedges on economic capital?
And what role does the price of the hedging instrument have to play in assessing the effectiveness and attractiveness of the hedge?
Colm is a Fellow of the Institute & Faculty of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries in Ireland. He lectures in actuarial science in University College Dublin and is a member of the Education Board and the Board of Examiners of the Institute & Faculty of Actuaries. Previously, he spent most of his career working as a trader, finishing up as Head of Quantitative Trading in Bank of Ireland Global Markets. His research interests include the psychology of risk, trading models, the application of actuarial techniques in wider fields, applying classical thought and forestry.
Title: The Psychology of Herd-like Behaviour and Financial Market Bubbles
Colm will discuss methodologies that can be used to assess and manage various forms of risks related to group psychology, e.g. herd-like behaviour, financial market bubbles, etc. He will use the concept of the narrative, draw the distinction between a narrative and an analysis and will use this approach to define what he refers to as 'narrative risk'. He will look back at historical bubbles to point out what we can and cannot learn from them. He will also use the methodology to discuss examples of herd-like behaviour amongst actuaries and amongst the wider public, and how the latter have created bubbles.
Title: Educating Actuaries of the Future
Presentation - Educating Actuaries of the Future (PDF, 720KB)
Ruth Hancock is Professor in the Economics of Health and Welfare, Health Economics Group, Norwich Medical School, UEA. Her other professional roles included membership of the Pension Provision Group (PPG), a seven member independent group appointed by the Secretary of State for Social Security as part of the then Government’s Pension Review. (July 1997 – February 2002); specialist adviser to the House of Commons Social Security Select Committee (2000), specialist adviser to the House of Commons Work and Pensions Committee (2001; 2004/5; 2009); member of the academic panel of experts supporting the work of the Dilnot Commission on the Funding of Care and Support, Dec 2010-July 2011; membership of the Advisory Group for the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2006- to date). She is a health economist with main research interests in provisions of the long-term care. She is holder of a grant on ‘Understanding the interactions between state pension and long-term care funding reforms in Great Britain’ from Nuffield Foundation (2014-2016) and the UEA lead on the ESRC-funded Business and Local Government Data Research Centre where she also leads the pathway on the support of vulnerable people.
Title: Funding care and support for older people
Title: Advancing actuarial science through research
Prof Anne Marie Minihane, is Professor of Nutrigenetics, head of the Nutrigenetics Group, and Director of Research and Innovation, in Norwich Medical School. Her research focus is investigating the independent and interactive impact of select dietary components (in particular n-3 fatty acids and flavonoids) and common gene variants on cardio-metabolic health. More recently we have also focussed on age-related cognitive decline and dementia. A particular interest is the APOE genotype, with individuals with the APOE4 version of the gene (25% UK population) being at higher risk of cardiovascular diseases and Alzheimer’s Disease, but also being more responsive to positive changes in dietary intake. In the future it is hoped that our research activities will contribute towards the use of genetic information in disease risk prediction, and the personalisation/stratification of preventive and therapeutic approaches.In addition to her research Anne Marie is deputy editor of the British Journal of Nutrition, Academic Advisor to the ILSI Obesity and Diabetes Task Force and panel chair for the Academy of Finland’s Health Panel.
Title: Nutrition, genotype and healthy ageing: Choose you parents carefully
Human life expectancy (HLE) has been increasing at about 2 years per decade for the past 150 years, and between 2010 and 2050 the proportion of older adults (aged more than 65 years) in Europe is projected to rise by 70%. Yet the prevalence of chronic disease in old age remains high. This excess morbidity is socioeconomically patterned and people living in poorer areas of the UK spend more of their shorter lives with disability – an average total difference of 17 years disability free life expectancy (DFLE) (3).
Total food intake and diet composition are major contributors to HLE (and health inequalities) with for example 50% of cardiovascular diseases prevented by improved diet. The amount and type of dietary fat along with the consumption of fruit and vegetables and other plant based foods, have emerged as particularly important determinants of HLE and chronic disease risk. However response to dietary change is highly variable which is likely in large part attributable to genetic differences between individuals. The impact of common gene variants on disease risk and on the personalisation of lifestyle (including dietary) advice will be explored.
Ben Rickayzen is Professor of Actuarial Science and has been Head of the Faculty of Actuarial Science and Insurance at Cass Business School, London, since 2008. He has been carrying out research into long term care for the elderly for the last 20 years. His particular interest is investigating financial products which would help meet the costs of long term care – and for which there would actually be demand!
Title: Surveying the long term care landscape in England following the delay in implementing parts of the Care Act 2014
Long term care (LTC) has been a topic of political debate in England for many years. The Care Act 2014 was supposed to introduce a cap on the costs of social care which individuals were required to meet, and to introduce a more generous set of means test limits. However, the Government subsequently decided to defer these changes to 2020 for affordability reasons.
In this talk, we consider how this period of delay could be used to reflect upon reforms which would meet the policy intention of protecting people from catastrophic care costs and would facilitate individual understanding of their potential care funding requirements. In particular, we review the options for product development, produce case studies to demonstrate the complexities of the care funding system and review the potential impact on incentives for individuals to save for care costs.
Andrew leads Deloitte’s analytics and quantitative modelling practice. He has twenty five years’ experience of stochastic modelling in the financial services industry, and has worked on projects in more than a dozen countries. In addition to his client work, he is also well-known for his prolific research output. The annual Peter Clark prize for the best actuarial paper has been awarded 8 times, and 6 of those were to papers Andrew wrote or co-authored. Andrew is an honorary fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.A member of Getting Better Judgement group.
Title: Calibrating multivariate dependency structures
Andrew will present a joint work with Prof Alex McNeil on ways of calibrating multivariate dependency structures, comparing tail dependence to arachnitude and other orthogonal polynomial methods.