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Peer review journal articles

  1. Kelly, P.M. (1977) Volcanic dust veils and North Atlantic climatic change. Nature, 268, 616-617.
  2. Kelly, P.M. (1977) Solar influence on North Atlantic MSL pressure. Nature, 269, 320-322.
  3. Kelly, P.M. and Wright, P.B. (1978) The European drought of 1975-6 and its climatic context. Progress in Physical Geography, 2(2), 237-263.
  4. Nichols, H., Kelly, P.M. and Andrews, J.T. (1978) Holocene palaeo-wind evidence from palynology in Baffin Island. Nature, 273, 140-142.
  5. Chance, A. and Kelly, P.M. (1979) An apparent periodicity in an index of volcanic activity. Nature, 280, 671.
  6. Wigley, T.M.L., Jones, P.D. and Kelly, P.M. (1980) Scenario for a warm, high-CO2 world. Nature, 283, 17-21.
  7. Kelly, P.M. (1981) The prediction of climate. (In German.) Umschau in Wissenschaft und Technik, 18, 566-569.
  8. Jones, P.D. and Kelly, P.M. (1982) Principal component analysis of the Lamb Catalogue of daily weather types: Pt. 1, annual frequencies. Journal of Climatology, 2, 147-157.
  9. Jones, P.D., Wigley, T.M.L. and Kelly, P.M. (1982) Variations in surface air temperatures: Pt. 1, Northern Hemisphere, 1881-1980. Monthly Weather Review, 110, 59-70.
  10. Kelly, P.M., Jones, P.D., Sear, C.B., Cherry, B.S.G. and Tavakol, R.K. (1982) Variations in surface air temperatures: Pt. 2, Arctic regions, 1881-1980. Monthly Weather Review, 110, 71-83.
  11. Kelly, P.M., Campbell, D.A., Micklin, P.P. and Tarrant, J.R. (1983) Large-scale water transfers in the USSR. GeoJournal, 7(3), 201-214.
  12. Kelly, P.M. (1983) The prediction of climate. (In Dutch.) Natuur en Techniek, 51(4), 272-287.
  13. Jones, P.D. and Kelly, P.M. (1983) The spatial and temporal characteristics of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature variations. Journal of Climatology, 3, 242-253.
  14. Raper, S.C.B., Wigley, T.M.L., Jones, P.D., Kelly, P.M., Mayes, P.R. and Limbert, D.W.S. (1983) Recent temperature changes in the Arctic and Antarctic. Nature, 306, 458-459.
  15. Holt, T.,Kelly, P.M. and Cherry, B.S.G. (1984) Cryospheric impact of Soviet large-scale water transfers. Annals of Glaciology, 5, 61-68.
  16. Hughes, M.K., Schweingruber, F.H., Cartwright, D. and Kelly, P.M. (1984) July-August temperature at Edinburgh reconstructed from tree-ring density and width measurements. Nature, 308, 341-344.
  17. Kelly, P.M. and Sear, C.B. (1984) Climatic impact of explosive volcanic eruptions. Nature, 311, 740-743.
  18. Gordon, G.A., Lough, J.M., Fritts, H.C. and Kelly, P.M. (1985) Comparison of sea-level pressure reconstructions from western North American tree rings with a proxy record of winter severity in Japan. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 24(11), 1219-1224.
  19. Jones, P.D., Raper, S.C.B., Bradley, R.S., Diaz, H.F., Kelly, P.M. and Wigley, T.M.L. (1986) Northern hemisphere surface air temperature variations, 1851-1984. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 25, 161-179.
  20. Davies, T.D., Kelly, P.M., Brimblecombe, P., Farmer, G. and Barthelmie, R.J. (1986) Acidity of Scottish rainfall influenced by climatic change. Nature, 322, 359-361.
  21. Palutikof, J.P., Kelly, P.M. and Davies, T.D. (1986) Windspeed variations and climatic change. Wind Engineering, 10, 182-189.
  22. Bradley, R.S., Diaz, H.F., Eischeid, J.K., Jones, P.D., Kelly, P.M. and Goodess, C.M. (1987) Precipitation fluctuations over northern hemisphere land areas since the mid-19th century. Science, 237, 171-175.
  23. Sear, C.B., Kelly, P.M., Jones, P.D. and Goodess, C.M. (1987) Global surface-air temperature response to major volcanic eruptions. Nature, 330, 365-367.
  24. Kelly, P.M., Goodess, C.M. and Cherry, B.S.G. (1987) The interpretation of the Icelandic sea ice record. Journal of Geophysical Research, 92 (C10), 10835-10843.
  25. Palutikof, J.P., Kelly, P.M. Davies, T.D. and Halliday, J.A. (1987) Impacts of spatial and temporal windspeed variability on wind energy output. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 26, 1124-1133.
  26. Farmer, G.F., Barthelmie, R.J., Davies, T.D., Brimblecombe, P. and Kelly, P.M. (1987) Nitrate and sulphate in precipitation: concentrations and deposition. Nature, 328, 787-789.
  27. Dickson, R.R., Kelly, P.M., Colebrook, J.M., Wooster, W.S. and Cushing, D.H. (1988) North winds and production in the eastern North Atlantic. Journal of Plankton Research, 10(1), 151-169.
  28. Jones, P.D., Kelly, P.M., Goodess, C.M. and Karl, T.R. (1989) The effect of urban warming on the Northern Hemisphere temperature average. Journal of Climate, 2(3), 285-290.
  29. Kelly, P.M., Munro, M.A.R., Hughes, M.K. and Goodess, C.M. (1989) Climate and signature years in west European oaks. Nature, 340(6228), 57-60.
  30. Wigley, T.M.L. and Kelly, P.M. (1990) Holocene climatic change, C14 wiggles and variations in solar irradiance. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, A330, 547-560.
  31. Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D. and Kelly, P.M. (1990) Principal component analysis of the Lamb catalogue of daily weather types: Part 2, seasonal frequencies and update to 1987. International Journal of Climatology, 10(6), 549-563.
  32. Kelly, P.M. and Wigley, T.M.L. (1990) The influence of solar forcing trends on global mean temperature since 1861. Nature, 347(6292), 460-462.
  33. Low, P.S., Davies, T.D., Kelly, P.M. and Farmer, G. (1990) Trends in surface ozone at Hohenpeissenberg and Arkona. Journal of Geophysical Research, 95(D13), 22441-22453.
  34. Low, P.S., Davies, T.D., Kelly, P.M. and Reiter, R. (1991) Uncertainties in surface ozone trend at Hohenpeissenberg. Atmospheric Environment, 25A(2), 511-515.
  35. Low, P.S., Kelly, P.M. and Davies, T.D. (1992) Variations in surface ozone trends over Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 19(11), 1117-1120.
  36. Davies, T.D., Farmer, G., Kelly, P.M., Glover, G.M., Apsimon, H.M. and Barthlemie, R.J. (1992) Surface pressure pattern indicators of mean monthly pollutant concentrations in southern Scandinavian precipitation: a test using case studies of months with high and low concentrations of non-marine sulphate and nitrate. Atmospheric Environment, 26a(2), 261-278.
  37. Davies, T.D., Kelly, P.M., Low, P.S. and Pierce, C.E. (1992) Surface ozone concentrations in Europe: links with the regional-scale atmospheric circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 97(D9), 9819-9832.
  38. Kelly, P.M. and Wigley, T.M.L. (1992) Solar cycle length variations, greenhouse forcing and global climate. Nature, 360, 328-330.
  39. Hulme, M. and Kelly, M. (1993) Exploring the links between desertification and climate change. Environment, 35(6), 4-11, 39-45.
  40. Kelly, P. M., Granich, S. L. V. and Secrett, C. M. (1994) Global warming: responding to an uncertain future. Asia Pacific Journal on Environment and Development, 1(1), 28-45.
  41. Marko, J. R., Fissel, D. B., Wadhams, P., Kelly, P. M. and Brown, R. D. (1994) Iceberg severity off eastern North America - its relationship to sea-ice variability and climate change. Journal of Climate, 7, 1335-1351.
  42. Jia Pengqun and Kelly, P. M. (1996) The identification of the volcanic signal in global surface air temperature. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 10(2), 221-232.
  43. Kelly, P. M., Jia Pengqun and Jones, P. D. (1996) The spatial response of the climate system to explosive volcanic eruptions. International Journal of Climatology, 16, 537-550.
  44. Rao, P. G., Kelly, P. M. and Hulme, M. (1996) Recent climatic change, greenhouse gas emissions and future climate: the implications for India. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 55, 41-64.
  45. Kelly, P. M. and Jones, P. D. (1996) Removal of the El Niño Southern Oscillation signal from the gridded surface air temperature data set. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 101, 19013-19022.
  46. Adger, W. N., Kelly, P.M. and Nguyen Hoang Tri (1997) Valuing the products and services of mangrove restoration. Commonwealth Forestry Review, 76(3), 198-202.
  47. Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., Wigley, T. M. L., Kelly, P. M. and Santer, B. D. (1997) Comparisons between the microwave sounding unit temperature record and the surface temperature record from 1979 to 1996: Real differences or potential discontinuities?Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, D25, 30135-30145.
  48. Kelly, P. M., Jones, P. D., Robock, A. and Briffa, K. R. (1998) The contribution of Hubert H. Lamb to the study of volcanic effects on climate. Weather, 53(7), 209-222.
  49. Nguyen Hoang Tri, Adger, W. N. and Kelly, P. M. (1998) Natural resource management in mitigating climate impacts: the example of mangrove restoration in Vietnam. Global Environmental Change, 8(1), 49-61. Also published in Water Resources and Coastal Management, ed. R. K. Turner and I. Bateman, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
  50. Kelly, P. M., Jones, P. D. and Jia Pengqun (1999) Spatial patterns of variability in the global surface air temperature data set. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104(D20), 24237-24256.
  51. Adger, W. N. and Kelly, P. M. (2000) Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, 4, 253-266.
  52. Locke, C., Adger, W. N., Kelly, P. M. (2000) Changing places: migration's social and environmental consequences. Environment, 42(7), 24-35.
  53. Kelly, P. M. and Adger, W. N. (2000) Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change, 47, 325-352.
  54. Kelly, P. M., Leuschner, H. H., Briffa, K. R. and Harris, I. C. (2002) The climatic interpretation of pan-European signature years in oak ring-width series. Holocene, 12(6), 689-694.
  55. Adger, W. N., Kelly, P. M., Winkels, A., Luong Quang Huy and Locke, C. (2002) Migration, remittances, livelihood trajectories and social resilience. Ambio, 31(5), 358-366.
  56. Brooks, N., Adger, W. N., and Kelly, P. M. (2005) The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Global Environmental Change, 15, 151-163.
  57. Eriksen, S. H., Brown, K., and Kelly, P. M. (2005) The dynamics of vulnerability: locating coping strategies in Kenya and Tanzania. The Geographical Journal, 171(4), 287-305.
  58. Zhang, H. X., Kelly, P. M., Locke, C., Winkels, A., and Adger, W. N. (2006) Migration in a transitional economy: Beyond the planned and spontaneous dichotomy in Vietnam. Geoforum, 37, 1066-1081.
  59. Eriksen, S. H., and Kelly, P. M. (2007) Developing credible vulnerability indicators for climate adaptation policy assessment. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12(4), 495-524.

Conference papers
PR = peer review

  1. Kelly, P.M. (1975) Long-term trends of weather and climate affecting operations at sea. In Proceedings, Oceanology International 75, 263-268. BPS, London. Kelly, P.M. (1978) An Arctic sea ice data set: 1901-1956. Glaciological Data, 5, 101-106.
  2. Kelly, P.M. (1979) Solar influence on North Atlantic MSL pressure (extended abstract). In Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, eds. B.M. McCormac and T.A. Seliga, 297-298. D.Reidel, Dordrecht.
  3. Williams, L.D., Wigley, T.M.L. and Kelly, P.M. (1980) Climatic trends at high northern latitudes during the last 4000 years compared with C14 fluctuations. In Sun and Climate, 11-20. CNES, Toulouse.
  4. Kelly, P.M. and Sear, C.B. (1982) The formulation of Lamb's Dust Veil Index. In Atmospheric Effects and Potential Climatic Impact of the 1980 Eruptions of Mount St. Helens, ed. A.Deepak, 293-298. NASA Conference Publication 2240, NASA, Washington DC.
  5. Kelly, P.M. and Jones, P.D. (1982) Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures: 1881-1981. In Proceedings of the 6th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, 28-31. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Washington DC.
  6. Jones, P.D., Kelly, P.M. and Tu Qipu (1983) Global surface air temperatures: 1981-1982. In Proceedings of the 7th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, 80-88. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Washington DC.
  7. Kelly, P.M. and Jones, P.D. (1983) The evidence for cycles on solar time scales in climate data. In Weather and Climate Responses to Solar Variations, ed. B.N.McCormac, 581-590. Colorado Associated University Press, Boulder, Colorado
  8. Kelly, P.M. (1984) Climatic change: past lessons and future prospects. In Proceedings of the Expert Consultation to Examine the Changes in Abundance and Species Composition of Neritic Fish Resources, FAO Fisheries Report No.291, 3, 595-605. FAO, Rome.
  9. Kelly, P.M., Karas, J.H.W. and Williams, L.D. (1984) Arctic climate: past present and future. In Proceedings of the Symposium Arctic Whaling, February 1983, Groningen, 25-38. Arctic Centre, Groningen.
  10. Farmer, G. and Kelly, P.M. (1984) Climatic variation in the North Sea region. In Seabed Mechanics, ed.B.Denness, 223-231. Graham and Trotman, London.
  11. Kelly, P.M. and Jones, P.D. (1984) Global surface air temperatures: 1982-1983. In Proceedings of the 8th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, 26-35. US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Washington DC.
  12. Kelly, P.M. (1984) Recent climatic variations in the North Atlantic sector. Rapp. P.-v. Reun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 185, 222-229.
  13. Palutikof, J.P., Davies, T.D. and Kelly, P.M. (1984) A data bank of wind speed records for the British Isles and off shore waters. In Wind Energy Conversion 1984, ed.P.Musgrove, 414-425. Cambridge University Press.
  14. Goodess, C.M., Wigzell, M. and Kelly, P.M. (1984) The design of a climatic data bank and information retrieval system. In Proceedings of the Tenth Northern Libraries Colloquy, ed. J.A.Whittick and B.D.Rodden, pp.89-111. C-CORE Publication No.84-19. C-CORE, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's.
  15. Palutikof, J.P., Kelly, P.M. and Davies, T.D. (1985) An analysis of the spatial and temporal variations in the wind field over the British Isles. In European Wind Energy Conference 1984, ed. W.Palz, 65-70. H.S.Stephens and Associates, Bedford.
  16. Palutikof, J.P., Kelly, P.M. and Davies, T.D. (1985) An analysis of seven long-term wind-speed records for the British Isles with particular reference to the implications for wind power production. In Wind Energy Conversion 1985, ed. A.Garrad, 235-240. Mechanical Engineering Publications Ltd, London.
  17. Kelly, P.M. and Campbell, D.A. (1985) Large-scale water transfers in Siberia. In Siberie 1. Questions Siberiennes: Economie, Ecologie, Strategie, 209-220. IMSECO, Paris
  18. Jones, P.D., Kelly, P.M. and Santer, B. (1985) Global surface air temperatures: 1983-1984. In Proceedings of the 9th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, 1-10. US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Washington DC.
  19. Jones, P.D., Kelly, P.M., Goodess, C.M., Bradley, R.S. and Diaz, H.F. (1985) Effects of urbanization and other sources of inhomogeneity on the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature average. In Extended Summaries, Third Conference on Climate Variations and Symposium on Contemporary Climate: 1850-2100, 19-20. American Meteorological Society, Boston.
  20. Kelly, P.M., Jones, P.D., Wigley, T.M.L., Goodess, C.M., Bradley, R.S. and Diaz, H.F. (1985) The extended Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature record: 1851-1984. In Extended Summaries, Third Conference on Climate Variations and Symposium on Contemporary Climate: 1850-2100, 35-36. American Meteorological Society, Boston.
  21. Kelly, P.M. and Sear, C.B. (1985) The climate impact of explosive volcanic eruptions. In Extended Summaries, Third Conference on Climate Variations and Symposium on Contemporary Climate: 1850-2100, 178-179. American Meteorological Society, Boston.
  22. Kelly, P.M., Goodess, C.M., Jones, P.D. and Wigley, T.M.L. (1986) Recent changes in surface air temperature over the northern land masses. In Proceedings, First WMO Workshop on the Diagnosis and Prediction of Monthly and Seasonal Atmospheric Variations over the Globe, College Park, July/August 1985. WMO Long-range Forecasting Research Report Series No.6, Vol.1, pp.59-63. WMO, Geneva.
  23. Palutikof, J.P., Davies, T.D., Kelly, P.M. and Halliday, J.A. (1986) Meteorological and statistical characteristics of high and low wind-speed months over the British Isles: a preliminary analysis. In Wind Energy Conversion 1986, eds., M.B.Anderson and S.J.R.Powells, 71-78. Mechanical Engineering Publications Ltd, London.
  24. Barthelmie, R.J., Davies, T.D., Farmer, G., Kelly, P.M. and Brimblecombe, P. (1987) Links between changing atmospheric circulation patterns and sulphate and nitrate in precipitation. In Acid Rain: Scientific and Technical Advances, eds. R.Perry, R.M.Harrison, J.N.B.Bell and J.B.Lester, 175-182. Selper, London.
  25. Bradley, R.S., Diaz, H.F., Jones, P.D. and Kelly, P.M. (1987) Secular fluctuations of temperature over Northern Hemisphere land areas and mainland China since the mid-19th century. In The Climate of China and Global Climate, eds. D.Ye, C.Fu, J.Chao and M.Yoshino, 76-87. China Ocean Press, Peking.
  26. Davies, T.D., Farmer, G, Glover, G.M., Barthelmie, R.J., Kelly, P.M. and Brimblecombe, P. (1987) Precipitation composition and climatic change in Scotland and southern Scandinavia. In Recent Climatic Change: A Regional Approach, ed. S.Gregory, 79-89. Belhaven Press, London.
  27. Davies, T.D., Palutikof, J.P., Holt, T. and Kelly, P.M. (1987) Variations in wind resource over the British Isles for potential power production. In Recent Climatic Change: A Regional Approach, ed. S.Gregory, 69-78. Belhaven Press, London.
  28. Palutikof, J.P. Davies, T.D., Kelly, P.M. and Halliday, J.A. (1987) Temporal and spatial variations in hourly windspeeds over the British Isles. In Proceedings, European Wind Energy Conference 1986, ed. W.Palz and E.Sesto, 231-236. ISES, Rome.
  29. Palutikof, J.P., Halliday, J.A., Davies, T.D., Bass, J.H., Holt, T., Watkins, C.P. and Kelly, P.M. (1987) Development of a site wind-regime prediction methodology for Britain: work in progress. In Wind Energy Conversion 1987, ed. J.M.Galt, 271-278. Mechanical Engineering Publications, London.
  30. Wigley, T.M.L., Jones, P.D. and Kelly, P.M. (1987) Global temperature variations, 1861-1986. In Proceedings, 11th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, 47-53. US Department of Commerce, Washington DC.
  31. Jones, P.D. and Kelly, P.M. (1988) Causes of interannual global temperature variations. In Long and Short Term Variability in Climate, ed. J.Wanner and U.Siegenthaler, 18-34. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
  32. Farmer, G. and Kelly, P.M. (1989) Evidence for climatic change. In: Proceedings, "A Conference on Global Climatic Change: Perspectives from Developing Countries", New Delhi, India, February 21-23 1989, 47-58. Tata Energy Research Institute, New Delhi.
  33. Kelly, P.M. (1989) Defence of the environment. In: Pathways to International Security, 69-80. United Nations Association of Great Britain and Professions for World Disarmament and Development, London.
  34. Kelly, P.M. (1990) Greenhouse Effect. In: Proceedings, "Automotive and Industrial Fuel Combustion - Environmental and Health Implications", ed. J.Brothwood and A.Fish, London, November 22 1989, 107-114. Institute of Petroleum, London.
  35. Kelly, P.M. (1990) Global warming In: Ireland's Options in the Greenhouse. Earthwatch Climate Conference Proceedings, ed. C.Heardman and J.Woolridge, 3-8. Earthwatch, Dublin.
  36. Kelly, P.M. and Farmer, G. (1990) Detecting global warming. In: A Change in the Weather: African Perspectives on Climatic Change, Proceedings of the Nairobi Conference, May 2-4 1990, ed. S.H.Ominde and C.Juma, 61-75. ACTS, Nairobi.
  37. Kelly, P.M. (1991) Global warming: implications for the Thames Barrier and associated defenses. In: Impact of Sea Level Rise on Cities and Regions, ed. R.Frassetto, 93-98. Marsilio, , Venice.
  38. Wigley, T.M.L., Jones, P.D., Kelly, P.M. and Hulme, M. (1992) Recent global temperature change: Ozone and aerosol influences. In: Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, ed. D.R.Rodenhuis, 194-202. US Department of Commerce, Washington DC.
  39. Kelly, P. M., Jones, P. D., Diaz, H. F. and Wigley, T. M. L. (1994) Recent global warmth moderated by the effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption. In: Proceedings of the Eighteenth Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, 5-8. US Department of Commerce, Washington DC.
  40. Jones, P. D. and Kelly, P. M. (1994) The effect of large explosive volcanic eruptions on surface air temperature. In: Large Explosive Eruptions, 125-134. Atti dei Convegni Lincei 112. Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Rome.
  41. Low, P. S., Kelly, P.M. and Davies, T. D. (1994) Trends in surface ozone over Europe, 1978-1990. In Ozone in the Troposphere and Stratosphere, Part 1. Proceedings of the Quadrennial Ozone Symposium 1992, NASA Conference Publication 3266, 3-6. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington DC.
  42. Kelly, P. M. (1996) Climate change: Factor X. In Water, Land Use and Sustainable Development, Proceedings Paper No 3 of the East Anglian SARD Working Group, ed. T. Oram, 12-15. Farmers' Link, Norwich, 52pp.
  43. Jones, P. D. and Kelly, P. M. (1996) The effect of tropical explosive volcanic eruptions on surface air temperature. In: The Mount Pinatubo Eruption: Effects on the Atmosphere and Climate, ed. G. Fiocco, D. Fua and G. Visconto, 95-111. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg.
  44. Wan Hassan, W. A., Kee, C. A., Holt, T. and Kelly, P. M. (1998) Modelling the impact of forest conversion on climate: a review. In: Conservation, Management and Development of Forest Resources, Proceedings of the Malaysia-United Kingdom Programme Workshop, 21-24 October 1996, Kuala Lumpur, ed. L. S. See, D. Y. May, I. D. Gauld and J. Bishop, pp. 332-348. Forest Research Institute Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur. 392p. PR
  45. Adger, W. N., Kelly, P.M. and Nguyen Hoang Tri (1998) Economic value of mangrove restoration as local resource and storm protection in Vietnam. In: Forestry in a Changing Political Environment: Challenges for the 21st Century. Proceedings of the Fifteenth Commonwealth Forestry Conference, Victoria Falls, ed. P.Mushove, M. Mubaiwa, M. Mukwekwerere and C. Pfukwa, 159-165. Commonwealth Forestry Association and Zimbabwe Forestry Commissions, Harare.

Books and book chapters
PR = peer review

  1. Kelly, P.M. (1975) Climatic Change in the North Sea Region Ph.D. thesis, University of East Anglia.
  2. Kelly, P.M. (1980) Climate: historical perspective and climatic trends. In Atlas of Drought in Britain 1975-76, eds. J.C.Doornkamp, K.J.Gregory and A.S.Burn, 9-11. Institute of British Geographers, London.
  3. Kelly, P.M., Wigley, T.M.L. and Jones, P.D. (1982) Comment on "Detecting carbon dioxide effects on climate" by W.H.Klein. In Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982, ed. W.C.Clark, 246-251. Oxford University Press. PR
  4. Kelly, P.M. (1982) Climate and climatic change. In Cambridge Encyclopaedia of the Earth Sciences, ed. D.G.Smith, 297-310. Cambridge University Press.
  5. Hughes, M.K., Kelly, P.M., Pilcher, J.R. and LaMarche Jr., V.C., editors (1982) Climate from Tree Rings. Cambridge University Press. PR
  6. Kelly, P.M. (1982) Northern Hemisphere: climatic context. In Climate from Tree Rings, ed. M.K.Hughes, P.M.Kelly, J.R.Pilcher and V.C.LaMarche Jr., 105-107. Cambridge University Press. PR
  7. Wigley, T.M.L., Jones, P.D. and Kelly, P.M. (1986) Empirical climate studies: warm world scenarios and the detection of climatic change induced by radiatively active gases. In The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change and Ecosystems, eds. B.Bolin, B.R.Doos, J.Jager and R.A.Warrick, 271-322, Wiley, Chichester. PR
  8. Wigley, T.M.L., Kukla, G.J., Kelly, P.M. and MacCracken, M.C. (1986) Recommendations for monitoring and analysis to detect climate change induced by increasing carbon dioxide. In Detecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide, ed. M.C.MacCracken and F.M.Luther, pp.177-185. Department of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Research Division, Washington DC. PR
  9. Kelly, P.M. and Karas, J.H.W. (1987) Nuclear Winter. In The World Encyclopedia of Peace. Pergamon, Oxford.
  10. Gribbin, J. and Kelly, P.M. (1989) Winds of Change. Living with the Greenhouse Effect. Headway, Sevenoaks.
  11. Kelly, P.M. (1990) Halting global warming. In: Global Warming: The Greenpeace Report, ed. J.Leggett, 83-112. Oxford University Press. PR
  12. Kelly, P. M. (1991) Was tun gegen die globale Erwärmung. In: Global Warming. Die Wärmekatastrophe und wie wir sie verhindern können. Der Greenpeace Report, ed. J.Leggett, 127-162. Piper, München. PR (as 12, in German)
  13. Wigley, T.M.L., Pearman, G.I. and Kelly, P.M. (1992) Indices and indicators of climate change: Issues of detection, validation and climate sensitivity. In: Confronting Climate Change: Risks, Implications and Responses, ed. I.Mintzer, 85-96, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. PR
  14. Ojwang, J. B., Hulme. M., Conway, D., Kelly, P. M., Subak, S. and Downing, T.E. (1995) Greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts. In A Climate for Development: Climate Change Policy Options for Africa, ed. H. W. O. Okoth-Ogendo and J. B. Ojwang, 49-84. ACTS Press/Stockholm Environment Institute, Nairobi. PR
  15. Okoth-Ogendo, H. W. O., Ogallo, L., Hulme. M., Conway, D., Kelly, P. M., Subak, S. and Downing, T.E. (1995) Global climate change and the environment. In A Climate for Development: Climate Change Policy Options for Africa, ed. H. W. O. Okoth-Ogendo and J. B. Ojwang, 11-46. ACTS Press/Stockholm Environment Institute, Nairobi. PR
  16. Kelly, M. and Granich, S. (1995) Global warming and development. In People and Environment, ed. S. Morse and M. Stocking, 69-107. UCL Press, London.
  17. Davies, T., Kelly, P. M. and Osborn, T. (1997) Explaining the climate of the British Isles. In Climates of the British Isles: Present, Past and Future, ed. M. Hulme and E. Barrow, 11-32. Routledge, London
  18. Kelly, P. M., Jones, P. and Briffa, K. (1997) Classifying the winds and weather. In Climates of the British Isles: Present, Past and Future, ed. M. Hulme and E. Barrow, 153-172. Routledge, London
  19. Hulme, M. and Kelly, M. (1997) Exploring the links between desertification and climate change. In Environmental Management: Readings and Case Studies, ed. L. Owen and T. Unwin, 213-230. Blackwell, Oxford. PR
  20. Kelly, P. M. (2000) Towards a sustainable response to climate change. In: Science and Environmental Decision Making, ed. M. Huxham and D. Sumner, 118-141. Pearson Education, Harlow, 268pp. PR
  21. Adger, W. N., Kelly, P. M. and Nguyen Huu Ninh (eds.) (2001) Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam. Routledge, London, 314pp.
  22. Adger, W. N., Kelly, P. M. and Nguyen Huu Ninh (2001) Environment, society and precipitous change. In: Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, eds. W. N. Adger, P. M. Kelly and Nguyen Huu Ninh, 3-18. Routledge, London.
  23. Adger, W. N. and Kelly, P. M. (2001) Social vulnerability and resilience. In: Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, eds. W. N. Adger, P. M. Kelly and Nguyen Huu Ninh, 19-34. Routledge, London.
  24. Kelly, P. M., Tran Viet Lien, Hoang Minh Hien, Nguyen Huu Ninh and Adger, W. N. (2001) Managing environmental change in Vietnam. In: Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, eds. W. N. Adger, P. M. Kelly and Nguyen Huu Ninh, 35-58. Routledge, London.
  25. Adger, W. N., Kelly, P. M., Nguyen Huu Ninh and Ngo Cam Thanh (2001) Property rights, institutions and resource management - Coastal resources under doi moi. In: Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, eds. W. N. Adger, P. M. Kelly and Nguyen Huu Ninh, 79-92. Routledge, London.
  26. Nguyen Hoang Tri, Phan Nguyen Hong, Adger, W. N. and Kelly, P. M. (2001) Mangrove conservation and restoration for enhanced resilience. In: Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, eds. W. N. Adger, P. M. Kelly and Nguyen Huu Ninh, 136-153. Routledge, London.
  27. Adger, W. N., Kelly, P. M. and Nguyen Huu Ninh (2001) Prospects for sustainable development. In: Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, eds. W. N. Adger, P. M. Kelly and Nguyen Huu Ninh, 263-270. Routledge, London.
  28. Kelly, P. M., Hoang Minh Hien and Tran Viet Lien (2001) Responding to El Niño and La Niña: averting tropical cyclone impacts. In: Living with Environmental Change: Social Vulnerability, Adaptation and Resilience in Vietnam, ed. W. N. Adger, P. M. Kelly and Nguyen Huu Ninh, 154-181. Routledge, London.
  29. Adger, W. N., Kelly, P. M. and Tri, N. H. (2001) Costs and benefits of mangrove conservation and restoration. In: Economics of Coastal and Water Resources: Valuing Environmental Functions, ed. R. K. Turner, I. J. Bateman and W. N. Adger, 259-180. Kluwer, Dordrecht.
  30. L. Q. Huy, N. H. Ninh. and P. M. Kelly (2009) Social vulnerability in Indochina. In: Critical States. Environmental Challenges to Development in Monsoon Southeast Asia, ed. L. Lebel, A. Snidvongs, C-T. A. Chen and R. Daniel, 367-380. Strategic Information and Research Development Centre, Petaling Jaya.

Reports, working papers and briefing documents
PR = peer review

  1. Hughes, M.K., Kelly, P.M., Pilcher, J.R. and LaMarche Jr., V.C., editors (1980) Report and Recommendations of the Second International Workshop on Global Dendroclimatology. The Organizing Committee of the Second International Workshop on Global Dendroclimatology, Norwich.
  2. Bradley, R.S., Kelly, P.M., Jones, P.D., Goodess, C.M., Diaz, H.F. (1985) A Climatic Data Bank for Northern Hemisphere Land Areas, 1851- 1980. Carbon Dioxide Research Division TR017. US Department of Energy, Washington DC.
  3. Jones, P.D., Raper, S.C.B., Santer, B., Cherry, B.S.G., Goodess, C., Kelly, P.M., Wigley, T.M.L., Bradley, R.S. and Diaz, H.F. (1985) A Grid Point Surface Air Temperature Data Set for the Northern Hemisphere. Carbon Dioxide Research Division TR022. US Department of Energy, Washington DC.
  4. Kelly, P.M. and Karas, J.H.W. (1986) No Place to Hide: Nuclear winter and the Third World. Press Briefing Document 43. Earthscan, London. PR
  5. Kelly, P.M., Karas, J.H.W. and Wigzell, M. (1987) Potential Effects of Nuclear War on the Atmosphere, Weather and Climate of the Greater London Area. Report to the GLAWARS Board of Commissioners. Polytechnic of the South Bank, London. PR
  6. Karas, J.H.W. and Kelly, P.M. (1988) The Heat Trap. Friends of the Earth, London.
  7. Turner, R.K., Kelly, P.M. and Kay, R. (1990) Cities at Risk. Bureau of National Affairs, London.
  8. Kelly, P.M. (1990) Halting Global Warming. Climate in Crisis No.1, Greenpeace International, Amsterdam. PR
  9. Marko, J. R., Fissel, D. B., Wadhams, P., Dowdeswell, J. A., Kelly, P. M. and Thompson, W. C. (1991) Implications of Global Warming for Canadian East Coast Sea-ice and Iceberg Regimes Over the Next 50 to 100 Years. Canadian Climate Centre Report No. 91-9. Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview.
  10. Kelly, M. and Granich, S. (1992, revised 1994, 1997) Environmental Briefing Series: Climate Change. Powerful Information, Milton Keynes.
  11. Granich, S., Kelly, P. M. and Ninh, N. H. (1993) Global Warming and Vietnam. Climatic Research Unit, Norwich/International Institute for Environment and Development, London.
  12. Hulme, M. and Kelly, M. (1993) Climate Change, Desertification and Dessication, and the Case of the African Sahel. CSERGE Working Paper GEC 93-17. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich and University College London. PR
  13. Pitta Govinda Rao, Kelly, M., Hulme, M. and Govindarajan Srinivasan (1994) Climatic Change, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Future Climate and Response Strategies: the Implications for India. CSERGE Working Paper GEC 94-22. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich and University College London. PR
  14. Hulme, M., Conway, D., Kelly, P M., Subak, S. and Downing, T. (1995) The Impacts of Climate Change on Africa. CSERGE Working Paper GEC 95-12. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich and University College London. PR
  15. Hulme, M., Conway, D., Kelly, P M., Subak, S. and Downing, T. (1995) The Impacts of Climate Change on Africa. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. PR
  16. Kelly, M. and Granich, S. (1995) The challenge of climate change. EC Aid and Sustainable Development Briefing Paper No. 6. International Institute for Environment and Development, London.
  17. Pitta Govinda Rao, Kelly, M. and Hulme, M. (1995) Economic Growth While Protecting the Environment: Some Issues Relevant to the Indian Energy Sector. CSERGE Working Paper GEC 95-34. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich and University College London. PR
  18. Kelly, M. and Granich, S. (1996) Climate support: strengthening the EU response. EC Aid and Sustainable Development Briefing Paper No. 9. International Institute for Environment and Development, London.
  19. Nguyen Hoang Tri, Adger, N., Kelly, M, Granich, S. and Nguyen Huu Ninh (1996) The Role of Natural Resource Management in Mitigating Climate Impacts: Mangrove Restoration in Vietnam. CSERGE Working Paper GEC 96-06. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich, and University College London. PR
  20. Subak, S. and Kelly, M. (1996) The BSE crisis and UK greenhouse gas emissions. CSERGE Policy Briefing No. 1. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich, and University College London.
  21. Subak, S., Craighill, A., Guthrie, M. and Kelly, M. (1996) The paper industry and global warming. Towards a Sustainable Paper Cycle, Sub-Study Series 20. International Institute for Environment and Development, London. PR
  22. Adger, W. N., Kelly, M., Nguyen Huu Ninh and Ngo Cam Thanh (1997) Property rights and the social incidence of mangrove conversion in Vietnam. CSERGE Working Paper GEC 97-21. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich, and University College London. PR
  23. Kelly, P. M. and Adger, W. N. (1999) Assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. CSERGE Working Paper GEC 99-07. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich, and University College London. PR
  24. Kelly, M., Granich, S. and Nguyen Huu Ninh (eds.) (2000) Report of the Workshop ‘The Impact of El Niño and La Niña on Southeast Asia', 21st-23rd February 2000, Hanoi, Vietnam. Center for Environment Research Education and Development, Hanoi.
  25. Zhang, H. X., Kelly, P. M., Locke, W., Winkels, A. and Adger, W. N. (2001) Structure and implications of migration in a transitional economy: Beyond the planned and spontaneous dichotomy in Vietnam. CSERGE Working Paper GEC 01-01. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich, and University College London. PR

Other publications

  1. Kelly, P.M. (1975) Statistics and climatic change. Nature, 255, 108-109.
  2. Kelly, P.M. (1976) Physical basis of climatology. Physics Bulletin, 27, 305-307.
  3. Kelly, P.M. (1976) Changing climate of the North Atlantic. Nature, 263, 636-638.
  4. Lamb, H.H. and Kelly, P.M. (1976) Prediction of volcanic activity and climate. Nature, 262, 5.
  5. Wigley, T.M.L., Gray, B.M. and Kelly, P.M. (1978) Climatic interpretation of O and D in tree-rings. Nature, 271, 92-94.
  6. Kelly, P.M. (1979) Towards the prediction of climate. Endeavour, 3(4), 176-182.
  7. Tavakol, R.K. and Kelly, P.M. (1979) CO2 and climatic changes. Chemistry and Industry, 7, 231-232.
  8. Gribbin, J. and Kelly, P.M. (1979) Climatic impact of Soviet river diversions. New Scientist, 84, 762-765.
  9. Sear, C.B. and Kelly, P.M. (1980) Eruption of Mt. St. Helens: effects on climate. Nature, 285, 533-535.
  10. Wigley, T.M.L., Jones, P.D. and Kelly, P.M. (1981) Global warming. Nature, 291, 285.
  11. Kelly, P.M. and Palutikof, J.P. (1982) Facing up to the weather. Marxism Today, 26(3), 14-17.
  12. Kelly, P.M. (1982) Changes in the weather. Water Bulletin, 30, 22 October 1982, 11-13.
  13. Kelly, P.M. (1984) Not with a bang but a winter. New Scientist, 103(1421), 33-36.
  14. Kelly, M. and Granich, S. (1988) Tropical trauma. Marxism Today, 32(8), 26.
  15. Kelly, M. and Granich, S. (1988) Towards a law of the air: ozone and the overheating Earth. Moving Pictures Bulletin, Issue 3, i-iv. Television Trust for the Environment, London.
  16. Kelly, P.M. and Granich, S. (1989) The greenhouse effect. Natural World, 25, Spring/Summer 1989, 6-8.
  17. Kelly, M. and Granich, S. (1989) Meltdown. BBC Wildlife, 7(1), 4-5.
  18. Kelly, M. and Granich, S. (1989) Mercury rising: Reversing Pandora. BBC Wildlife, 7(6), 388-389.
  19. Kelly, P.M. (1990) The four pillars. Moving Pictures Bulletin, issue 10, November 1990, 32-33
  20. Kelly, P.M. (1990) Greenhouse effect. Petroleum Review, 44 (519), 184-186.
  21. Kelly, M. (1996) Sea level rise and the Thames Barrier. Acropolis, Issue no. 11, December 1996, 1(4), 66-68.
  22. Kelly, M. and Granich, S. (1997) The challenge of climate change. The Courier, No. 163, May-June 1997, 44-46.
  23. Kelly, M. (1998) Into the greenhouse century. People & the Planet, 7(1), 29.
  24. Kelly, M. (2001) Climate co-operation or neo-colonial exploitation? Watershed, 7(1), 66-67. ISSN 0859 1601

This list does not include proprietary and non-proprietary reports written for funding agencies nor editorial contributions to the bulletin Tiempo, edited by Sarah Granich, Mick Kelly and Richard Sandbrook.

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