Sets of images for each study area
The Unconstrained Policy Scenario
This is a scenario that takes its prescriptions straight from current policy guidance documents and represents the changes various organisations would like to see in the countryside. However, it assumes no changes in farming, nor does it make provision for funding those changes. So it actually represents a ‘wish list’ or ‘fantasy landscape’ that could only be realised if the resources were made available and if there were no objections to the policy changes. All of the other scenarios are for the 2020s decades. As farming enterprise and agricultural land use is one of the key driving factors in the realisation of the look of the rural landscape, these scenarios incorporate potential future land use changes estimated using a Climate and Land Use Allocation Model (CLUAM) (Parry et al. 1999 and in prep.). These illustrate the potential constraints upon the previous scenario imposed by projected global social and economic changes the might affect world food supply and hence local farming enterprise and land use under futures with and without climate change. The A2 and B2 scenarios represent different 'storyline' views of how world/UK social and economic systems might develop (SPRU 1999).
- A1 Scenario is associated with UKCIP02 'high emissions' scenario, with increase in global temperature of 3.9 degrees centigrade by 2100.
- A2 Scenario is associated with UKCIP02 'medium-high emissions' scenario, with increase in global temperature of 3.3 degrees centigrade by 2100.
- B2 Scenario is associated with UKCIP02 'medium-low emissions' scenario, with increase in global temperature of 2.3 degrees centigrade by 2100.
- B1 Scenario is associated with UKCIP02 'low emissions' scenario, with increase in global temperature of 2.0 degrees centigrade by 2100.
UKCIP02 climate change scenarios for the UK (Hulme et al. 2002).
A2 scenarios
In the A2 world economic factors have priority over environmental protection and there is little concern about global issues, so little effort made to guard against climate change impacts. In this scenario we keep intensive farming with high use of pesticides and fertilisers. This means taking high yields of crops off a smaller area of land (though with no regard to long-term damage to soils etc). As there is little concern for biodiversity or nature conservation any spare land is likely to transfer to new economic uses - eg more building developments or ‘leisure landscapes’. Non-climate change: the A2 future assuming no climate change illustrates this intensive farming practice, or a switch to leisure landscapes, with no biodiversity enhancements. Climate change: in the A2 future with climate change illustrates the consequences of a lack of preparation to cope with climate change effects. E.g. soil erosion, baked-earth, die-back of trees, poor quality stressed vegetation - pretty much the results of a long-drought summer but including flash-flood type damage, and maybe wind damage to trees etc.
B2 scenarios
In the B2 world the will and resources to protect the environment is strong. Local renewable energy schemes (CHP, wind, biofuels) flourish (but as this is likely to be a reponse to the threat of climate change, this is only illustrated in the with-climate change scenario). Agriculture is subsidised to promote nature and landscape conservation, low input farming systems are encouraged - fields margins are likely to be filled with wildflowers and crops may be more weedy. As farming is less intensive more land is needed for growing crops to maintain yield, and this could provide a constraint to the ‘fantasy landscape’ of current policy documents/the unconstrained scenario. These scenarios illustrate enhanced landscape protection and biodiversity but also show the interaction between modified farming needs and environment needs. Non-climate change: the B2 future is similar to the unconstrained scenario excepting for land use changes and how these might serve to limit some of the policy ‘wishes’. Climate Change: the B2 future with climate change illustrates summer drought but in a less extreme way as measures would have been put in place to prepare and lessen the impacts of climate change - e.g. water use efficiency measures, changes in farming practice etc. This scenario also includes introduction of new food crops and also industrial crops - biofuels etc responding to the need for society to decarbonise. NOTE: All of the images/scenarios represent the 2020s and illustrate the direction of potential future climate change impacts and social and economic policies. These changes may be manifested more dramatically in landscapes of the 2050s or 2080s. The 2020s decade was chosen for illustration as it was considered to be within a time-framework with which people can most easily identify. The further into the future the more remote, surreal and possibly unrealistic the portrayals may become.