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INTEGRATE - data-model study of interactions between tropical monsoons and extra-tropical climate variability


In order to predict the evolution of inter-regional linkages this century, it is crucial to understand how they have evolved in the past. This is particularly important because extremes such as drought are modulated by decadal variability. This study is motivated by recent identification of multidecadal links between 2000-year reconstructions of Tibetan Plateau precipitation and Northern Hemisphere temperature. This research goes beyond this initial finding by combining insights gained from coupled climate models and observations (instrumental, tree-ring and documentary records) to identify large-scale modes that link the variability of tropical monsoons and northern extratropical climates on multiple timescales. The researchers will (i) better understand the teleconnections between monsoon and extratropical regions (with particular emphasis on the Arctic), (ii) evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce observed behaviour including regional extremes, (iii) explore mechanisms that drive the observed behaviour and understand how the linkages may evolve under future climate change using simulations with a hierarchy of models. Paleoclimate records, including temperature- sensitive tree-ring records from the Eurasian Arctic and precipitation-sensitive series from the Asian monsoon regions provide a unique opportunity to identify associations on annual to multidecadal timescales.


UEA Team

Tim Osborn, Principal Investigator

Manoj Joshi, Co-Investigator

Satyaban Ratna, Co-Investigator



Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China:

  • Bao Yang, researchers


Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany:

  • Jürg Luterbacher, Lea Schneider, Stefanie Talento


Other collaborators:

  • Andrew Parnell, University College Dublin
  • Kevin Anchukaitis, University of Arizona
  • Quansheng Ge, PAGES 2k Asia group
  • Jostein Bakke, PAGES 2k Arctic group
  • Jessica Tierney, PAGES 2k Ocean 2k group
  • Vlad Shishov, Siberian Federal University Krasnoyarsk



Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)


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