The Wallace Initiative (WI) (http://wallaceinitiative.org) has examined the potential impacts of climate change on ~50,000 plants and animals (birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians) under future climate change.  Projected changes in climate envelopes have been used to calculate (i) the % of climate space lost (or gained) by a species (ii) the number of species gaining or losing certain amounts of space and  (iii) spatial variation in loss of species richness (iv) identification of refugia from, and areas at particular risk from, climate change.  Areas that are refugia are areas where current best conservation practices might be adequate for protection of the biodiversity while areas that are not refugia will require adaptation.

Existing work considers the response of biodiversity to changes in mean climate.  Evidence is accruing that biodiversity is sensitive to extreme weather events.  Hence analyses that base projections of impacts on only mean climates, may underestimate the impacts of climate change.

The student will expand the capability of the WI to simulate responses to monthly time series of climatic change, allowing species to respond also to interannual variability and extreme weather events. Modelling tools produced by Climatic Research Unit allows daily time series to be produced consistent with future climate change projections. The student will use such weather generator tools to simulate species responses to events such as heat waves. The student will explore how the effects of annual variability and short term extreme events might affect analyses of types (i) to (iv) above.

The student should hold a first class degree in either a relevant biological subject such as ecology & conservation or bioinformatics, or alternatively computer science.   Basic computer programming skills are essential and the student must acquire new computer programming skills during the project.  An applicant who is a computer scientist must also have scientific training in a biological subject. 

The student will benefit from exposure to a world leading interdisciplinary research environment within the Tyndall Centre.  The student will have the opportunity to liaise with colleagues in the School of Biological Sciences, and to collaborate with Australian partners at James Cook University and Griffith University. 

The student will emerge from the PhD with (i) problem solving ability (ii) excellent writing and communication skills (iii) experience in liaising with team members in the Tyndall Centre (iv) experience in liaising with international team members (v) ability to organise and lead own research. The student would therefore be highly employable on completion of the PhD. The skills would also be highly attractive to potential employers in academia, industry and consultancy firms.  Supervisor, Dr. Rachel Warren, is a coordinating lead author in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  Co-supervisor Dr. Aldina Franco has extensive experience in ecological modelling.

(For the Wallace initiative website please see http://eresearch.jcu.edu.au/projects/sample-2 and for our projected climates work see http:\climascope.tyndall.ac.uk.

(Warren, R., Price, J., de la Nava Santos, S., Fischlin, A., and Midgley, G., 2011. Increasing impacts of climate change upon ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise. Climatic Change 106 (2) 141-177 DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-9923-5.

Warren R, Yu R, Osborn T., 2012.  European Drought Regimes under mitigated and unmitigated climate change. Climate Research  51: 105–123, 2012  doi: 10.3354/cr01042

Warren, R. 2011. The Role of Interactions in a World Implementing Adaptation and Mitigation Solutions to Climate Change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369:217-241; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0271  

Bateman, B. 2010.  PhD thesis. Beyond simple means: integrating extreme events and biotic interactions in species distribution models: conservation implications for the northern Bettong (Bettongia tropica) under climate change.  James Cook University.  Available at http://eprints.jcu.edu.au/19015/1/01front.pdf