M dot Morciano at uea dot ac dot uk
Tel: +44 (0)1603 59 1074
|Medical School 2.25|
2008 - Research Associate, Health Economics Group, University Of East Anglia, UK
2008 - MSc in Applied Economics and Data Analysis (with merit), University of Essex, UK
2007 - PhD in Economics, University of Bologna, Italy
2004 - Member of CAPP, Centre for the Analysis of Public Policies, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy
2003 - BA in Economics (cum laude), University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy.
My current research projects are mainly along the lines of: (a) distributional effects of social policies with a particular focus on pension and LTC policies; (b) poverty measurement and analysis; (c) development of static and dynamic micro-simulation models; (d) the use of disability measures; (e) unit non-response in longitudinal studies.
My research is aimed to produce high quality analysis to inform public debate and development of long-term care and pension policy. It included work to explore current and projected future public expenditure costs of various options of reform. Reforms of social policies are likely to produce both macroeconomic and distributive effects. The first can be analyzed using macroeconomic simulation models, which examine relationships between national economic sectors and aggregates variables. The distributive effects are mainly explored by means of micro-simulation models which examine the effects of policy at the micro level, such as individuals, families or households. Given a survey which collects detailed information on the socio-economic characteristics of the micro-units, micro-simulation models allow to assess "what happen if..." we impose some changes in the tax/benefit system. This analysis can be focussed in estimating the immediate impact of policy changes (using static model) as well as in the long-run (dynamic model) where the characteristics of micro-units are projected forward through time.
The importance of disability as a social problem is only matched by the vast range of survey questions that have been developed to measure it. The measurement issue is more than a statistical curiosity because strong policy conclusions have often been drawn, on the basis of these survey measures, about important issues like the targeting of the system of public assistance for disabled people and the need for policy reform. Some of my researches are devoted to investigate whether different indicators of disability are consistent with a common set of findings relating to the targeting of disability benefits for older people, using latent factor simultaneous equation models.
Longitudinal surveys are rich sources of information to study the dynamics of socioeconomic and health outcomes allowing to isolate the effects of unobserved differences among individuals of a population of interest. However, because of a variety of reasons, survey data are often incomplete. Incomplete data may arise because of unit or item non-response depending whether the decision of a sampled person is to do not participate in the survey at all or not fully cooperated with it. These behaviours not only reduce the efficiency of the estimates through reduction in the sample size but -more importantly- may introduce bias if the mechanism that causes non-response is non-random and correlated to the phenomena of interests. I am interested in the theoretical and empirical analysis of the individuals' willingness of participating in a survey and its determinants and the potential effects of selective sample selection in modelling target efficiency of disability benefits.
Hancock, R, Malley, J, Wittenberg, R, Morciano, M, Pickard, L, King, D and Comas-Herrera, A (2012) The role of care home fees in the public costs and distributional effects of potential reforms to care home funding for older people in England. Health Economics Policy and Law. pp. 1-27.
Hancock, R, Morciano, M and Pudney, S (2012) Attendance Allowance and Disability Living Allowance claimants in the older population: is there a difference in their economic circumstances? Journal of Poverty and Social Justice, 20 (2). pp. 191-206. ISSN 17598273
Mazzaferro, C, Morciano, M and Savegnanago, M (2012) Differential mortality and redistribution in the Italian notional defined contribution system. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 11 (04). pp. 500-530. ISSN 1474-7472
Malley, J, Hancock, R, Murphy, M, Adams, J, Wittenberg, R, Comas-Herrera, A, Curry, C, King, D, James, S, Morciano, M and Pickard, L (2011) The effect of lengthening Life Expectancy on future pension and Long-Term Care expenditure in England, 2007 to 2032. Health Statistics Quarterly. p. 52. ISSN 1465-1645
Shemilt, I, Thomas, J and Morciano, M (2010) A web-based tool for adjusting costs to a specific target currency and price year. Evidence and Policy, 6 (1). pp. 51-59.
Morciano, M and Mazzaferra, C (2009) I COSTI DELLA LENTA TRANSIZIONE AL SISTEMA CONTRIBUTIVO: UN’ANALISI DISTRIBUTIVA. Studie e Note di Economia, 3. pp. 515-540.
Baldini, M, Mazzaferro, C and Morciano, M (2008) Assessing the implications of long term care policies in Italy: A microsimulation approach. Politica Economica, 1 (47-72).
Craig, R, Darton, R, Hancock, R, Henderson, C and Morciano, M (2012) Social Care. In: Health Survey for England - 2011, Health, social care and lifestyles. NHS.
Morciano, M, Baldini, M, Gori, C and Mazzaferro, C (2008) Costi e argomenti. In: Le riforme regionali per i non autosufficienti. Gli interventi e i rapporti con lo Stato. Carocci, Roma.
Ciani, E and Morciano, M (2011) Estimation and Simulation of Earnings in IT-SILC. Working Paper. CAPP, Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) n. 90.
Flisi, S and Morciano, M (2011) Trends and dynamics in the Italian labour market. An empirical evaluation using RFL data, 1993-2007. Working Paper. CAPP, Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) n. 91.
Wittenberg, R, Hu, B, Hancock, R, Morciano, M, Comas-Herrera, A, Malley, J and King, D (2011) Projections of Demand for and Costs of Social Care for Older People in England, 2010 to 2030, under Current and Alternative Funding Systems. Working Paper. PSSRU, PSSRU Discussion Paper n. 2811.
Mazzaferro, C, Morciano, M, Pisano, E and Tedeschi, P (2010) Modelling Private Wealth Accumulation and Spend-down in the Italian Microsimulation Model CAPP_DYN: A Life-Cycle Approach. Working Paper. CAPP n.73, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia.
Hancock, R, Morciano, M and Pudney, S (2010) Attendance Allowance and Disability Living Allowance claimants in the older population:Is there a difference in their economic circumstances? Working Paper. Essex University, Colchester.
Mazzaferro, C, Morciano, M, Pisano, E and Tedeschi, S (2010) The Introduction of a Private Wealth Module in CAPP_DYN: an Overview. Working Paper. CAPP.
Balarajan, Meera, Gray, Michele, Blake, Margaret, Green, Sophie, Darton, Robin, Fernandez, Jose-Luis, Hancock, Ruth, Henderson, Cate, Kearns, Dan, King, Derek, Malley, Julliette, Martin, Adam, Morciano, Marcello, Pickard, Linda and Wittenberg, Raphael (2009) Developing social care questions: findings from qualitative research with service providers ad service users. Research Report. NatCen, London.
Balarajan, Meera, Gray, Michele, Blake, Margaret, Green, Sophie, Darton, Robin, Fernandez, Jose-Luis, Hancock, Ruth, Henderson, Cate, Kearns, Dan, King, Derek, Malley, Julliette, Martin, Adam, Morciano, Marcello, Pickard, Linda and Wittenberg, Raphael (2009) Cognitive testing of social care questions for people aged 65 and over. Research Report. NatCen, London.
Mazzaferro, C and Morciano, M (2008) CAPP_DYN: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Italian Social Security System. Working Paper. CAPP.
Colombini, S, Mazzaferro, C, Morciano, M and Savegnago, M (2008) Studio prospettico della poverta in Italia. Confidential Report. CAPP, Rome.
Morciano, M and Silvestri, P (2008) Integrazione tra dati censuari e dati di indagini sulla condizione economica delle famiglie per la costruzione di mappe della poverta locale e di modelli di valutazione delle politiche sociali locali. Working Paper. CAPP n. 37.
Hancock, Ruth, Malley, Juliette, King, Derek, Pickard, Linda, Comas-Herrera, Adelina and Morciano, Marcello (2010) Memorandum by the MAP2030 Research Group (SC 55) in House of Commons Health Committee Social Care Third Report of Session 2009–10 Volume II Oral and written evidence. The Stationery Office, House of Commons, UK Parliament.
Pudney, Stephen, Zantomio, Francesca, Hancock, Ruth and Morciano, Marcello (2010) Memorandum by the Universities of Essex and East Anglia (SC52) in House of Commons Health Committee Social Care Third Report of Session 2009–10 Volume II Oral and written evidence. The Stationery Office, House of Commons, UK Parliament.
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