Paul dot Clist at uea dot ac dot uk
Tel: +44 (0)1603 59 1865
I am an ESRC Postdoctoral Fellow based in the School of International Development, UEA. I am an applied development economist, with published work that predominately focuses on development aid and normally contains some applied econometric analysis.
Note: Working paper versions of this article are available under the title '25 Years of Aid Allocation Practice: Comparing Donors and Eras', Credit Working Paper 2009 (09/11) and CSAE Conference Paper 2010 (155) The CREDIT WP contains more information on the choice between Two-Part, Heckman and Tobit models.Selectivity on Aid Modality: Determinants of Budget Support from Multilateral Donors (with Alessia Isopi and Oliver Morrissey)
Aid and tax revenue: Signs of a positive effect since the 1980s
(with Oliver Morrissey)
Journal of International Development, 23(2), pp165-180, 2011
This paper addresses the effect of aid loans and grants on tax effort using data for 82 developing countries over 1970-2005. We find no robust evidence for a negative effect of aid (grants or loans) on the tax/GDP ratio, other than a contemporaneous correlation, but find some evidence that the effect of grants on tax revenue is positive (if significant) since the mid 1980s and that grants tend to increase tax revenue over the medium term. For poor aid recipients, grants are to be preferred to loans because they create no debt and have no adverse fiscal effects.
Forthcoming in World Development
Focusing on seven bilateral donors over a 25 year period, the paper answers 4 questions related to aid allocation practice. Questions one and two examine allocation differences between donors and time periods. Questions three and four relate to changes in poverty and policy selectivity. To answer these questions a formal approach is used to quantify the effects of four factors that influence aid allocation: poverty, policy, proximity and population. The results reaffirm findings of large donor heterogeneity and the role of non-development influences. However, they dispute recent findings of large or growing policy sensitivity.
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