I am a Reader in Climate Science at the Climatic Research Unit, within the School of Environmental Sciences at UEA, where I have worked since 1990. For the first 15 years I was a research scientist and then I was awarded an Academic Fellowship in 2005, which provided a five-year transition to my current academic role that combines teaching, research and academic leadership.
My research and teaching are concerned with identifying variations in climate (as observed, modelled and recorded in climate proxies) and understanding their causes (in terms of natural and anthropogenic climate processes). This understanding provides the basis for making projections of possible future climate change.
I have authored or co-authored over 90 papers that have appeared in peer-reviewed journals or books. This includes the high-impact journals "Nature" and "Science". According to the Web of Science, 29 of my papers have been cited at least 50 times, 20 at least 100 times, and the average citations per listed paper is 60.
I am a Lead Author of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), contributing to the chapters concerned with palaeoclimatic information and with the detection and attribution of climate change, as well as the overall Summary for Policymakers.
I communicate about my scientific research via the following social media sites. Their content does not represents the views or opinions of the University of East Anglia.
Twitter: @TimOsbornClim (my twitter feed)
- 1987 to 1990: University of East Anglia. BSc (Hons) Geophysical Sciences (First Class).
- 1990 to 1995: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Research Associate.
- 1991 to 1995: School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia. PhD.
- 1995 to 2005: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Senior Research Associate.
- 2005 to 2010: School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia. Academic Fellow.
- 2010 to date: School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia. Reader in Climate Science.
I was a Research Associate in the Climatic Research Unit for five years while studying part-time for my PhD under the supervision of Professor Tom Wigley, using computer-based models of the global ocean to study natural variability of the thermohaline circulation.
After being awarded my PhD in 1995, I became a Senior Research Associate working with Professors Mike Hulme, Keith Briffa and Phil Jones. We developed the first estimates of the uncertainty in the HadCRUT global temperature record. We identified an increase in the occurrence of heavy winter rainfall in the UK, subsequently confirmed and updated in more recent studies, and which contributed to the Royal Meteorological Society awarding me the Hugh Robert Mill Medal in 2002. We used an extensive network of tree-ring measurements from across the Northern Hemisphere to reconstruct summer temperatures over the last few centuries, to detect the widespread cooling that follows explosive volcanic eruptions, and to document an apparent decline in the maximum density of tree-rings during recent decades. These latter studies have now been cited more than 300 times each.
In 2005, I was awarded an RCUK Academic Fellowship, a scheme designed to provide a more stable career path for future research leaders. During my fellowship, I led a number of projects to investigate natural climate variability over the last millennium, the changing occurrence of extreme rainfall, and the generation of scenarios of future climate change using simulations with both simple and complex models of the climate system.
I was appointed as a Reader in Climate Science in 2010, within the School of Environmental Sciences. I have continued to lead research across a broad range of pressing climate science issues while also teaching at undergraduate and postgraduate levels, and organising the final-year undergraduate research projects within the School from 2010 to 2013.
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Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset
in International Journal of Climatology
pp. 623-642Full Text UEA Repository
The CRUTEM4 land-surface air temperature data set : Construction, previous versions and dissemination via Google earth
in Earth System Science Data
pp. 61-68Full Text UEA Repository
Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact
in Climatic Change
pp. 1-13Full Text UEA Repository
A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau
in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
pp. 2903-2908Full Text UEA Repository
Temperature and Snow-Mediated Moisture Controls of Summer Photosynthetic Activity in Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems between 1982 and 2011
in Remote Sensing
pp. 1390-1431Full Text UEA Repository
The development of Lamb weather types: from subjective analysis of weather charts to objective approaches using reanalyses
pp. 128-132Full Text UEA Repository
The influence of synoptic weather regimes on UK air quality: analysis of satellite column NO2
in Atmospheric Science LettersFull Text UEA Repository
A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change
in Nature Climate ChangeFull Text UEA Repository
Estimates of the North Atlantic Oscillation back to 1692 using a Paris-London westerly index
in International Journal of Climatology
pp. 228-248Full Text UEA Repository
Sudden stratospheric warmings and tropospheric blockings in a multi-century simulation of the IPSL-CM5A coupled climate model
in Climate Dynamics
pp. 2401-2414Full Text UEA Repository
The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation
in Climatic Change
pp. 55-70Full Text UEA Repository
Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss
in Nature Climate Change
pp. 678-682Full Text UEA Repository
Large-scale variations in the vegetation growing season and annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 at high northern latitudes from 1950 to 2011
in Global Change Biology
pp. 3167-3183Full Text UEA Repository
Reassessing the evidence for tree-growth and inferred temperature change during the Common Era in Yamalia, northwest Siberia
in Quaternary Science Reviews
pp. 83-107Full Text UEA Repository
Causes of robust seasonal land precipitation changes
in Journal of Climate
pp. 6698-6715Full Text UEA Repository
Claim of solar influence is on thin ice : Are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe?
in Environmental Research Letters
8.Full Text UEA Repository
Information from paleoclimate archives : Chapter 5
In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
(Other chapter contribution)
Thermal growing season and timing of biospheric carbon uptake across the Northern Hemisphere
in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
26.Full Text UEA Repository
How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios
pp. 3151-3171Full Text UEA Repository
Hemispheric and large-scale land surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2010
in Journal of Geophysical Research
pp. 16Full Text UEA Repository
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Key Research Interests
My main research interests are concerned with identifying variations in climate (as observed, modelled and recorded in climate proxies) and understanding their causes (in terms of natural and anthropogenic climate processes). This understanding provides the basis for making projections of possible future climate change.
I have investigated natural climate variability over the last 1000 years or so, using measurements of tree-rings and other climate "proxies" to estimate past changes in temperature across the Northern Hemisphere. By analysing this information in conjunction with climate model simulations, these past climate changes can be related to natural forcing factors such as variations in volcanic activity or solar irradiance.
During the more recent period, with instrumental observations of climate, my research has focussed on the study of rainfall and atmospheric circulation changes, particularly over the UK. Changes in the occurrence of heavy or extreme precipitation, as well as drought events, have been identified. I have also investigated changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation, finding that greenhouse-gas-induced climate change is likely to be associated with a strengthening of the westerly circulation over the Atlantic and European region that may have begun to influence our climate already.
I have developed the ClimGen softward application for generating spatially-detailed climate change scenarios based on the many simulations available from general circulation models, to enable users to explore the uncertainty range of possible future climate change. ClimGen has been used to provide consistent climate scenarios to multi-sectoral, global-scale impacts assessments and integrated analyses of future climate policies (such as within the NERC QUEST project, the DECC/Defra-funded AVOID project, the Tyndall Centre's Community Integrated Assessment System, and the EU-funded ERMITAGE and TOPDAD initiatives).
Publications: EPrints Digital Repository
I teach at both undergraduate and postgraduate (Masters) levels, focussing on our scientific understanding of the climate system and the basis for our concern about global warming. My teaching includes the Earth's energy budget, natural and human-related drivers of climate change, and the role of the oceans in the climate system. I also cover many of the tools needed to monitor and predict climate changes, such as data analysis and climate modelling.
- Member of the NERC Peer-Review College, 2012 to present
- Lead Author of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, 2010 to 2013 www.climatechange2013.org
- Awarded the Hugh Robert Mill Medal by the Royal Meteorological Society in 2002
- Member of the editorial board of the International Journal of Climatology, 2000 to present