I am a reader in integrated assessment of climate change at the Tyndall Centre. My research focuses on the production of policy relevant science related to climate change and sustainability. A particular focus has been the quantification of the climate change impacts that can be avoided by timely mitigation. I lead the team that has developed the Community Integrated Assessment System, CIAS, which links together models of the climate system, climate change impacts and the global economy across a range of institutions.
I am a coordinating lead author of the 5th (2014) assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and was lead author of the 4th assessment which was awarded the Nobel Peace prize on 2007.
My academic background and training is in physics and the natural sciences at Cambridge University. After completion of my PhD (1989) I pursued my interest in atmospheric sciences and rapidly became involved in policy relevant research, a purpose to which I remain committed today. Through this commitment I have assisted in national, European and international policy development relating to combating stratospheric ozone depletion, acid deposition, eutrophication, and climate change.
I led the Tyndall Centre’s contribution to HM Treasury’s Stern Review, and continue to lead its contribution to AVOIDing dangerous climate change project for the Dept. of Energy and Climate Change. This has delivered key policy relevant science that informed the UK negotiating position within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
My former work at the NOAA Environmental Research Laboratories provided evidence on the environmental acceptability of CFC substitutes, leading to inclusion of fluorocarbons in the Kyoto Protocol, winning the NOAA Aeronomy Laboratories Outstanding Scientific Paper Award. At Imperial College, my integrated modelling work was used in the development of international UN ECE protocols and to underpin the UK’s participation within these.
Reader (equivalent to Associate Professor), Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 2012 – Present.
Leader, Integrated Modelling, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 2009 - Present.
NERC Advanced Research Fellow, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, 2009 - 2013.
Senior Research Fellow, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, 2002 – 2008; Joint appointment with 4CMR, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge UK, 2007 - 2008.
Secondment, Global Atmosphere Division, Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), 2004.
Research Lecturer & Head of Integrated Assessment Unit, TH Huxley School, Imperial College, London, UK, 2000 – 2001.
Senior Research Fellow, TH Huxley School of Environment, Earth Sciences& Engineering, Imperial College, London UK, 1992 – 2000.
Open University, UK, Credit in Ecology, with Distinction, 1996.
Research Associate, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado. Boulder, Colorado USA, Jan 1990-Dec 1992.
Ph.D Physics 1989, Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge, U.K., 1985-1989 Thesis title: Optical, Electronic and Structural properties of Lead Halide Intercalation Compunds.
B.A. (honors) 1985 Natural Sciences, Newnham College, Cambridge, U.K.
Key Research Interests
- Policy relevant science related to climate change and sustainability
- Integrated assessment modelling of climate change, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and sustainability
- Linkages between land use change policy and climate change policy; exploring the land-water-energy nexus in relation to climate change, agriculture and ecosystem conservation
- Quantification of the benefits of climate policy and climate change mitigation, in particular the avoided climate change impacts
- Climate change impacts on ecosystems and species, and hence ecosystem services and the economy
- Robustness of integrated assessment results to uncertainties within and between models
- Making policy relevant science available and useful to policy makers, stakeholders and the academic community.
- Warren, R., VanDerWal, J., Price, J., Welbergen, J.A, Atkinson, I., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Osborn, T.J., Jarvis, A., Shoo, L.P., Williams, S.E., Lowe, J. 2013. Quantifying the benefit of early mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss. Nature Climate Change 3: 678-682 DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE1887
- Warren, R., Lowe, J., Arnell, N.W., Hope, C. et al. 2013. The AVOID programme’s new simulations of global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation. Climatic Change DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0814-4
- Arnell, N.W., Lowe, J.A., Brown, S., Gosling, S.N., Gottschalk, P., Hinkel, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Nicholls, R.J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, T.M., Rose, G.A., Smith, P. & Warren R.F. 2013. A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change. Nature Climate Change DOI:10.1038/nclimate1793
- Warren, R., Yu, R., Osborn, T. 2012. European Drought Regimes under mitigated and unmitigated climate change. Climate Research 51: 105–123, 2012 DOI: 10.3354/cr01042
- Warren, R. 2010. The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A. In press.
- Warren, R., Mastrandrea, M., Hope, C., and Hof, A. 2010. Variation in the climatic response of integrated models. Climatic Change. DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9769-x.
- Warren, R., Price, J., de la Nava Santos, S., Fischlin, A, and Midgley, G., 2010. Increasing impacts of climate change upon ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise. Climatic Change. DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-9923-5.
- Warren R, Yu R, Osborn T European Drought Regimes under mitigated and unmitigated climate change. In review Climate Research
- Warren, R., de la Nava Santos, S., Arnell, N.W., Bane, M., Barker, T., Barton, C., Ford, R., Füssel, H-M., Hankin, R.K.S., Klein, R., Linstead, C., Kohler, J., Mitchell, T.D., Osborn, T.J., Pan, H., Raper, S.C.B., Riley, G., Schellnhüber, H.J.,Winne, S., and D. Anderson (2008) Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change. Environmental Modelling & Software 23, 592-610. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.09.002
- Warren, R. (2006). ‘Impacts of Global Climate Change at Different Annual Mean Global Temperature Increases’, in Schellnhuber, H.J., Cramer, W., Nakicenovich, N., Wigley, T., and Yohe, G. (Eds) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
- Warren, R. and ApSimon, H.M., (2000) ‘Selection of Target Loads for Acidification in Emission Abatement Policy: the use of Gap Closure Approaches’, Water, Air and Soil Pollution 121, 229-258.
- Warren, R. and ApSimon, H.M., (2000) ‘The Abatement Strategies Assessment Model, ASAM: Robustness Studies, Illustrative Results, and Investigation of the Role of European Countries in Sulphur Dioxide Emission Reduction Schemes’, Journal of Environmental Management, 59, 3-20.
- Ravishankara, A.R., Solomon, S., Turnipseed, A.A., and Warren, R. (1993) ‘Atmospheric Lifetimes of Long-lived Halogenated Species’, Science, Vol. 259, pp. 194-99. [Winner of the Outstanding Scientific Paper Award NOAA/US Dept of Commerce].
- Fisher, B., Nakicenovich, N, Alfsen, K. et al., and Warren, R. (2007) (Lead Author). ‘Issues Related to Mitigation in the Long-term Context’, In: Metz B, et al. (eds) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 169-250.
- Fischlin, A., Midgely, G., Price, J. et al., and Warren, R. (2007) (Contributing Author) ‘Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services’, In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 211-272.
- Barker, T., Pan, H., Kohler, J., Warren, R. and Winne, S., (2006). Decarbonizing the global economy with induced technological change: Scenarios to 2100 using E3MG. Energy Journal, Special Issue, pp 241-258.
- Coordinating Lead Author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment. Working Group II, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Ch 19, Key Vulnerabilities
- Lead Author IPCC Fourth Assessment. Working Group III, Mitigation of Climate Change. Ch. 3, Long-term aspects of mitigation.
- Co-chair Elect Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) TGICA (Task Group on Climate Impact Assessment).
- Lead Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) team, including the development of a Community Integrated Assessment System for China in the Fudan Tyndall Centre.
- Tyndall Centre lead for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (AVOID) 2 project, funded by the UK Dept of Energy and Climate Change. Formerly Tyndall leader of its predecessor, AVOID.
- UEA Lead Investigator for three research projects funded by the European Commission: Enhancing Robustness in Model Integration for the Assessment of Global Environmental Change (ERMITAGE) http://ermitage.cs.man.ac.uk/ Tool Supported Policy development for Regional Adaptation (TOPDAD) http://www.topdad.eu/ and High End Climate Impacts and Extremes (HELIX) www.tyndall.ac.uk/HELIX/